MarketLens
Tuesday, 25 August 2026
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Government bonds

3
US 10-year Treasury yield 10 to 20 basis points

US 10-year Treasury yields are likely to fall further as rate cut expectations grow.

Mechanism The yield curve is pricing in more accommodative policy, pushing long-term yields lower.

Direct effect weeks
#5US Treasury Yields Drop, Markets Brace for Policy Shifts
US 10-year Treasury yield 5 to 10 basis points

Yields on US Treasuries are expected to decline further as demand for bonds increases.

Mechanism The flight to safety and lower inflation expectations are causing a decrease in Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield dropping intraday.

Direct effect intraday
#2Tech Stocks Surge as Falling Treasury Yields Boost Market
US Treasury yields 5 to 10 basis points

Increased demand for dollars may push US yields higher.

Mechanism As global demand for USD increases, it could lead to higher US Treasury yields due to inflation expectations.

Knock-on effect weeks
#4China's Dollar Need Fuels Geopolitical Tensions, Impacts FX Markets